+
Login Register
Blog Post

Wall Street is watching for a $10 billion domestic box office in 2026. Disney could get it there

  • by Ema Timahe

LOS ANGELES — A push toward streaming, a pandemic and two Hollywood labor strikes have upended the theatrical industry, dragging on annual box-office hauls. While 2024 and 2025 boast franchise-rich movie slates, Wall Street doesn’t expect ticket sales to top $10 billion domestically until 2026. The domestic box office has not hit that benchmark since 2019 before the Covid pandemic. Last year, it raked in just over $9 billion. When the box office does again surpass that threshold, Disney could be the driving force. “We don’t know completely what is in ’26, but I think it could end up being bigger than 2025 because it’ll be the first time ever that we have like four mega franchise films,” said Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM. The 2025 movie calendar wraps up with a third Avatar film in mid-December, meaning ticket sales will bleed into 2026. Then that summer starts with an Avengers team-up film, currently titled “The Kang Dynasty,” followed by a “Mandalorian” Star Wars movie over Memorial Day weekend. Another Star Wars film will round out Disney’s big year in December 2026. Those franchises’ track records suggest they could drive a staggering box-office haul. After all, the first Avatar generated nearly $800 million at the domestic box office after its release in 2009. “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which arrived in 2022, snared nearly $700 million. Both films were released in late December and therefore, most of their ticket sales were collected in the year after their debut. Meanwhile, four of the five Star Wars franchise films released after Disney acquired the brand in 2012 generated at least $500 million domestically during their runs — 2015′s “The Force Awakens” topped $900 million. “Solo: A Star Wars Story” was the only one to collect less than $250 million domestically. As for Marvel, while stand-alone character films have been hit or miss over the last decade, Avengers-titled films have had strong box-office hauls. The four Avengers films tallied an average of $650 million from ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada.

+